JAPAN'S ROLE IN ASIAN SECURITY

By Ronald McCoy（IPPNW Co-President）

Introduction

The end of the twentieth century seems like a far cry from the l980s, when Japan's economic might was at its height. The ongoing Asian economic crisis has not spared Japan which now has to deal with serious economic challenges and uncertainties that have undermined its confidence at a time when it needs to feel less vulnerable in dealing with a number of foreign policy concerns.

Japan's diplomacy and foreign relations have been based on economic foundations. Any erosion of those foundations is bound to have repercussions on Japan's geopolitical role. Having been the engine of economic growth in Asia and having accounted for about 70 per cent of Asia's Gross Domestic Product, it is a cause for concern that Japan has been unable to come up with a rescue plan or economic formula to offset the problems of globalization in Asia. Fundamental restructuring of Japan's economy and financial governance will have to take place before it can regain its regional and global eminence.

Among Japan' s foreign policy concerns are the emergence of two more Asian nuclear powers (India and Pakistan), China's growing economic and military power, the changing nature of the Japan-US alliance, and the geopolitical nuances related to the Clinton administration's rapprochement with Beijing, described as a "constructive strategic relationship", although it must be said that US-China relations have been shaken by the nuclear secrets episode and the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. The bipolar US-China relationship has encouraged China to see itself as the dominant Asian power in the future, which will make for unsetting environment for Asian countries, The nature of Japan's responses to these concerns will determine its long-term status as a regional and global power in the twenty-first century.

Living with the Past

The Second World War has provided Japan with two experiences that have indelibly influenced Japanese politics and psyche. The first was the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the unconditional surrender of Japan to the Allied forces.

The second was the total occupation of Japan for several years by US forces and the political reforms that culminated in a new constitution for Japan.

The burden of Japan's aggression in the 1930s and I940s still weighs heavily on the Japanese conscience and has generally been the basis of anti-Japanese sentiment, particularly in China and the Korean peninsula.

In 1977, former Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda proposed a new Doctrine for Japan in Southeast Asia that rejected Japanese military power and built a strong, cooperative relationship with countries in the Asia-Pacific region, in the hope of erasing memories of past Japanese aggression. At the core of anti-Japanese sentiment is the perception that Japan has fai1ed to apologize meaningfully or display genuine contrition for its atrocities before and during the Pacific War. Atonement would wash away the accumulated residue of resentment that has deep roots, particularly in China and the Koreas. A new generation of leaders must emerge from civil society and government to assume responsibility, come to terms with Japan's history, make genuine amends for the past, and not look back. However, history has a way of getting in the way and the danger remains that many young Japanese want Japan to revert back to becoming a military power again.

And yet it must be said that nations, like individuals, are frequently reluctant to say sorry. For example, the United States has never formally apologised for enslaving Africans, invading Mexico and Canada, stealing Texas, colonising the Philippines and Guam, carpet bombing and napalming Vietnam, and above all obliterating Hiroshima and Nagasaki with atomic bombs.

History shows that human beings behave abominably during wars. While not forgetting the past, China and the Koreas should bury the past and acknowledge that Japan has changed since the end of the Second World War; as much as Germany has changed and left behind its memories of the Holocaust.

Asia must exorcise the ghosts of the past, banish its fear and animosity for Japan,rooted in history and elephant-like memories, and face the future with a spirit of　cooperation and policies that do not threaten or beggar neighbors.

The Constitution of Japan

In its preamble, the Constitution of Japan affirms that the Japanese people are determined to secure for themselves "the fruits of peaceful cooperation with all nations and the blessings of liberty" and that never again shall they be visited with the horrors of war through the action of government". In Article 9 of the Constitution; the Japanese people "forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes". It also emphasizes that "land, sea and air forces as well as other war potential, will never be maintained" and that the right of belligerency of the state will not be recognised. "

In 1951, immediately after the signing of a formal Peace Treaty which ended the American occupation of Japan, the initial Japan-US Security Treaty was also signed, some say, imposed by the occupation forces.

In 1 960? the Security Treaty was amended to give the US the right to continue using its military bases in Japan for "the security of Japan and peace in the Far East." It also provided for joint Japan-US military operations to defend Japan when necessary, although it was widely opposed by sections of the Japanese population.

In 1978, the "Guidelines for US-Japan Defense Cooperation" were approved, which gave a comprehensive framework for defence cooperation in an Emergency'' in Japan or the Far East, without clearly defining those obligations.

Review of the Guidelines

In April 1996, President Clinton and Prime Minister Hashimoto issued the "US-Japan Joint Declaration on Security", which reconfirmed that the US-Japan security relationship remained the cornerstone for achieving common security objectives and for maintaining a stable and prosperous environment in the Asia-Pacific region. They also agreed to a review of the 1978 guidelines.

In June 1996, the 1978 guidelines were reviewed and a new concept of a military response to "situations in areas surrounding Japan" was introduced, replacing commitments in the so-called "Far East". The aims were to create a solid basis for more effective and credible US-Japan cooperation and to empower the United States to determine what would amount to an emergency situation and what would be the scope of military action.

The, new guidelines therefore commit Japan to supporting the US in any military action in "areas surrounding Japan", which could include the Korean peninsula and Taiwan, two sensitive areas of contention in the Asia-Pacific region. Even if such support is limited to logistics, such as providing mine-sweeper, supplies to US forces, making available Japanese ports and air bases, search and rescue operation surveillance and inspection of ships to enforce UN sanctions, it would technically amount to a violation of Article 9 of the Japanese constitution.

Initially, the Japan-US military alliance was established to defend Japan against the "Soviet threat" during the Cold War. Now that the Cold War is over, the US perception of threat has been widened to include threats from the so-called "rogue" states of North Korea, Iran and Iraq. In effect, the Guidelines now allow the United States, with stronger logistical support and rearguard action from Japan, to intervene military in "emergencies" in areas surrounding Japan", which could be interpreted to cover any area in the Asia-Pacific region, including Taiwan and the Korean peninsula.

The most serious repercussions of the guidelines, passed in the Diet on 24 May l999, fa11 on Japan's relations with North Korea and China.

In 1994, tensions over North Korea's suspected nuclear weapons program nearly precipitated a US attack, which was finally averted through mediation efforts by the former US President, Jimmy Carter, and the signing of the 1994 "Agreed Framework". The launching of a North Korean satellite rocket through Japan's airspace in August 1999 also rang a alarm bells in East Asia over Pyongyang's missile development program which continues with its long-range Taepo Dong-3 missile, which has the potential to reach most parts of the United States.

Although the US supports the "one China" principle, it is obliged to defend Taiwan under its Taiwan Relations Act, if Taiwan' s threatened declaration of independence provokes an attack by China. Tensions in the Taiwan Strait in March 1996, which saw the deployment of two US aircraft carriers in the area, are further examples of regional flash points that could precipitate US military action and drag Japan into a war as a result of the new guidelines.

Other states in the region, including those that suffered Japanese occupation during the Pacific War, are also alarmed at the potential for aggression implied in the guidelines.

The new guidelines constitute a radical revision of the Security Treaty and virtually commit Japan to participating in any war that serves US interests in the Asia-Pacific region. It could eventually lead to a revision of Japan's non-military Constitution and the re-emergence of Japanese militarism. This would be a terrible betrayal of all those Japanese who died in the Pacific War and in the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The Japan-US Military Alliance

Given the outcome of the Second World War, the military alliance between Japan and the United States is a good example of the dictum that states are motivated only by national interests.

The US has more than 130 military bases in Japan. Tokyo has the distinction of being one of the few capital cities to host a major foreign air- force base. The United States Kadena Air Base, occupying one-fifth of Okinawa island, accounts for 75 per cent of all US military installations and two-thirds of the 45000 US mi1itary personnel in Japan, including the Marine Expeditionary Force. The US Navy 7th Fleet is located in Yokoska at the entrance to Tokyo Bay.

In 1996, Japan generously contributed 78 per cent of US$4.6 billion to the cost of maintaining US bases in Japan. In fact Japan has a defence budget second only to that of the United States. In 1997, Japan's defence budget peaked at US$ 42.9 billion, the equivalent of the combined defence budgets of China, India, South Korea and Taiwan.

1998 US Department of Defense report, 'The United States Security Strategy for the East Asia-Pacific Region' clearly clarified Japan's role when it concluded that the US-Japan alliance would remain the linchpin of America's security policy in the next century. Full and effective implementation of the 1997 guidelines for Japan-US Defense Cooperation potentially ensures a substantial US military response to any regional threat.

The wider implications of the guidelines are further spelled out in the l998 'National Security Strategy for a New Century' in which President Clinton declared: "We will do what we must to defend these vital interests, including-when necessary-using our military might unilaterally and decisively." Such declarations spawn fears in Beijing that the United States, using its military bases in Japan and the support of Japanese forces, may intervene in future crises over Taiwan or Tibet.

Recent history describes several unilateral military interventions by the US: Vietnam (1960s-1970s), Grenada (1983), Panama (1989), Iraq (1996), Afghanistan and Sudan(1998), and recently Yugoslavia (albeit a NATO action but led by the US). None of these interventions received a legitimate mandate from the United Nations Security Council. Such a record of violations of the UN Charter undermines confidence and does not preclude Japan's collaboration in preemptive strikes launched by US forces. Yet, militarism is an anachronism in the nuclear age, a sentiment that Japan above all other nations would be expected to appreciate.

Relations with China - Containment or Engagement?

A long-standing perception is that Japan and China are natural rival states. China's rise as a growing economic and military power will therefore induce critical and difficult strategic adjustments, not only for the United Slates but also for Japan, long considered to be the leading Asian Country.

Although many remain unconvinced that China will emerge as a regional leader, China's growing pre-eminence represents a challenge to Japanese foreign policy and a kind of wild card in the Japan-US bilateral relationship. There is uneasiness in Japan over the "constructive strategic partnership" between the US and China and the perception that China is trying to weaken the Japan-US relationship, particularly at a time when US-Japan relations are being shined by US criticism of Japan's macro economic policies in the face of the Asian economic crisis.

However, Japan has much to gain from having a powerful but peaceful China as a neighbour, basking in a positive partnership with the US. Any US-China conflict would have serious consequences for Japan and its military alliance with the US. Japan's policies will inevitably be shaped to a great extent by the perceived threat that China poses to the Asia-Pacific region.

Unfortunately, the growing militarism and expansion of NATO have undermined attempts to improve relations in the region. An American-spun web of security relationships and NAT0's military exercises and seminars with the armies of Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, which border China, seem designed to neutralize and contain China' s influence. In addition, the unilateral NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, which included the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade and NATO's projection as a unilateral global policeman have further strained US relations with China.

How the US responds over the next two decades to the military and economic power of China, with the world' s largest population, the fastest economy and a growing defence budget, will have global repercussions. It is crucial to ensure that China is incorporated into the global body politic and global trading community.

Membership of the World Trade Organization is essential if China's industries and consumers to be fully integrated into the world economy. China will become an enemy if it is treated as an enemy, and the climate of tension and mutual suspicion between the United States and China may generate another Cold War.

The future reunification of Korea and friendly relations between the US and China will reduce the need for US-Japan military preparedness and increase domestic pressure to drastically reduce, if not phase out, US forces based in Japan. If this is achieved, both Japan and the US will be able to transform their military alliance into a more positive political alliance.

Japan has the opportunity to exercise a positive catalytic role by supporting China's entry into the WTO and reassuring Beijing that the Japan-US alliance is aimed not at the situation in Taiwan but at promoting regional stability. By developing visionary bilateral dialogues and seeking important agreements on macroeconomic policy, trade, the environment, nuclear disarmament and regional confidence-building measures, Japan could initiate bilateral relationships which in turn could be developed to promote multilateral institutions such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference (APEC) and the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Nuclear Disarmament

As the sole victim of nuclear weapon Japan has impeccable credentials for spearheading nuclear disarmament and yet it has not played an effective role in nuclear disarmament. Instead, Japan has preferred to remain on the sidelines, nursing a non-nuclear stance that remains questionable and ambiguous. Japan' s acceptance of the US nuclear umbrella has further undermined its moral authority.

The nuclearisation of India and Pakistan in May 1998 has profoundly shaken Japan's non-nuclear defense policy. When the foreign ministers of the five established nuclear powers met in Geneva in June 1998 to address South Asia's nuclear tests, Japan's request to participate was denied. This caused resentment and suspicion in Japan that its attempt to endorse nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament were not being supported by the US and China.

In addition, there is the suspicion of North Korea' s on-and-off nuclear weapons program and China's modernization of Nuclear weapons, stimulated by the refusal of the three Western nuclear powers to live up to their legal obligations and commit to the elimination of nuclear weapons, spelled out in Article 6 of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Despite this, it is most unlikely that Japan will exercise its nuclear option although it has the potential to do so. However, Japan has shown interest in a Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) system, which has raised controversy in the country. North Korea's missile test in Japanese airspace in August 1998 could bolster Support for a TMD system, in collaboration with the United States. On the other hand, these nuclear and missile threats may also reinforce domestic pressure on the Japanese government to actively work for nuclear disarmament and to change the status quo by relinquishing the nuclear umbrella.

Most importantly, Japan must fashion a long-term, far-sighted nuclear policy and work with the newly formed New Agenda Coalition of influential middle powers (Brazil, Egypt, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, Slovenia, South Africa and Sweden) for the elimination of Nuclear weapons. It is crucial for Japan to send a clear message to the international community that it is genuinely and unequivocally committed to nuclear disarmament and the eventual elimination of nuclear weapons within a reasonable time frame.

The Way Forward

Although the Cold War is over, bringing an end to the ideological East-West confrontation, many political and security uncertainties persist. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of a bipolar world need not necessarily result in a unipolar world with the United States as the only superpower, although the US is expected to play a predominant role, commensurate with its economic and military power. The dangers of a pax Americana have already been brought home to the international community by the US-led military intervention by NATO in Yugoslavia, which was not legitimated by the UN Security Council.

The fundamental challenge we face is in changing our medieval mindsets about geopolitical security and creating innovative regional economic and political shires that would deliver human security and appropriate responses to the pressure of globalization. Essentially, globalization is a process of increased mobility of finance and capital, culture and the, production and commercialization, technology and information, ideas and even diseases. The challenge is to cooperate in developing national and international mechanisms to manage the risks of globalisation and to harness its benefits for all.

The most urgent problem now facing the Asia-Pacific region is le ongoing Asian financial and economic crisis. Economic chaos, social dislocation and political instability will inevitably jeopardize the security environment of the region in which Japan has a key role to play. The early recovery of the Japanese economy is obviously the one essential step towards political and regional stability.

There is also a great need to redefine security and restructure security arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region. The concept of traditional military security must give way to human security which rests on the elimination of poverty, the protection of human rights, the preservation of the environment, and the eradication of disease. The existing Japan-US Security Treaty provides Japan with a nuclear security shield and entangles Japan with the hegemonic ambitions of the United States. At this time in history, such an arrangement is inappropriate. It is time for Japan to sever its umbilical cord to the United States, assume its rightful place in the family of nations, and have an independent foreign and defense policy of its own.

July 7, 1999.